Even with Congaree now out, this shapes up to be a terrific and close race. Our speed figures (with 3 at 104, and 1 at 103) and selectors (with 2 at 10) point to an edge to Point Given and Monarchos, who may be equally deserving as favorite, although the nod of the experts seems to be going to Point Given at this time. We are not entirely convinced that he has established he can go the mile and a half here, having won the shorter of the two first legs of the Triple Crown. Monarchos may or may not redeem himself, but we recommend taking a look at AP Valentine who just might surprise them both. Despite some traffic problems in the Preakness he finished within 3 lengths, is 2 for 2 on this his home track, and has worked well getting ready for this one.

There will be strong challenges to the top two, both from the front and the back. Balto Star has drawn a favorable inside post and may be able to establish an uncontested lead. If so he may not tire as he did in the Derby with its record early pace. And coming from the back of the field will be Invisible Ink and AP Valentine.

Anything can happen, and think about playing it that way. If you intend to wager on the trifecta or the exacta consider boxing all five of the above, or covering your top picks with a small box on the 1, 2 & 8.