Well two out of three ain't bad!
Looks like we fell prey to the gambler's biggest enemy -- Wishful Thinking.
Congratulations to VICTORY GALLOP who proved us wrong in trying to write his late charge out of the race! -- June 7th
Here's how we see the Belmont developing (maybe, more or less):
From the start Yarrow Brae, Grand Slam and Basic Trainee will be among the early leaders. Real Quiet will settle into an easier spot than in the Preakness, several lengths off the pace. This time Victory Gallop will save himself for a one run shot and will be a few lengths back of Real Quiet. Limit Out, who may be the surprise horse, and Classic Cat will be in the neighbourhood of Real Quiet.
This will remain fairly constant down the backstretch although Classic Cat or Limit Out may make an early move. Those two along with Real Quiet and Victory Gallop will all be trying to make their presences felt with a move at or near the beginning of the last turn.
Around the turn and heading into the stretch Real Quiet will open up a short lead, being chased by the other three and Yarrow Brae who gamely tries to hang in there. Down the stretch Real Quiet will never be seriously challenged and will open up a bit of a margin by the wire. Victory Gallop will tire leaving second and third to Classic Cat, Yarrow Brae and Limit Out with the former probably edging out the latter two for Place. Show is too close to call. Possibility that Grand Slam may also be nearby at the end.
Long Shots:
Limit Out may be a long shot possibility if he can actually handle this distance. Also watch the price on Raffie's Majesty and Classic Cat who may be overlooked. Yarrow Brae may be one who can hang on off a good race and decent workout pattern.
Quick Picks: Real Quiet Classic Cat Limit Out Pace Profile: Limit Out Real Quiet Victory Gallop Spud Says: Real Quiet Classic Cat Long Shots: Yarrow Brae Raffie's Majesty CONSENSUS: Real Quiet(8) Classic Cat(4) Limit Out(4) Victory Gallop(1) Rtg ML LR EP LP FTS Real Quiet +++ 6-5 106 110 96 106 Classic Cat ++ 15-1 103 109 95 104 Limit Out +- 10-1 105 102 102 104 Victory Gallop ++ 7-2 104 117 85 103 Yarrow Brae + 20-1 104 107 96 103 Raffie's Majesty + 20-1 102 100 102 102 Grand Slam + 6-1 100 104 96 100 Hanuman Highway-IR 30-1 94 103 94 100 Parade Ground 20-1 98 101 99 100 Chilito 30-1 94 105 95 100 Hot Wells 30-1 100 107 92 99 Thomas Jo 30-1 98 99 100 99 Basic Trainee 50-1 86 111 82 93