Churchill Downs -- BREEDERS' CUP DAY
Fast Track Simulcapping:
Contenders and Speed
Ratings
-- RATINGS --
RTG contender rating LR last race speed rating
P# program number EP early pace rating
ML morning line odds LP late pace rating
DLR days since last race FTS Fast Track speed rating
Rank rank of LR, EP, LP, FTS each horse
* ratings calculated from race of different distance to today
For Further Explanation of Ratings
Back to Fast Track Simulcapping
November 7th, 1998.
The Pick Six does not look easy with a lot of contentious races, but
the guaranteed $5 Million may make a few groups go together with a lot of money at
stake. Several runners have a chance in every race so a small wager also makes
sense if it is looked at as a lottery ticket with a remote chance but a positive
expectation thanks to the guaranteed portion.
4TH RACE: 1 1/16 mi. "BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE"
A slight edge to Answer Lively but Cat Thief comes as part of
an entry. Of our long shot picks Prime Directive is preferred with some
experience at the distance. Yes It's True rates third choice.
Quick Picks: Answer Lively Yes It's True Cat Thief
Pace Profile: Answer Lively Cat Thief Noteasybeingreen
Spud Says: Cat Thief Answer Lively
Long Shot: Noteasybeingreen Prime Directive
CONSENSUS: Answer Lively(8) Cat Thief(6) Yes It's True(2)
Name RTG P# ML DLR LR EP LP FTS Rank
Answer Lively ++ 6 4-1 20 98 104 95 99 1251
Yes It's True + 1 9-2 20 95 98 99 97 4912
Cat Thief ++ 2 3-1 20 98 101 96 97 1722
Prime Directive + 3 30-1 28 92 104 92 96 9272
*Noteasybeingreen + 8 30-1 21 95 106 89 96 4192
The Groom Is Red + 7 7-2 28 97 99 96 95 3922
*Tactical Cat + 2B 3-1 28 84 99 96 95 9922
Lemon Drop Kid 5 6-1 28 94 100 95 95 7762
Mountain Range + 2X 3-1 61 96 104 90 94 4299
*Time Bandit 1A 9-2 42 88 99 92 91 9979
Daring General 10 12-1 27 91 98 93 91 9979
Buck Trout 9 15-1 27 94 103 88 91 7299
Aly's Alley 11 30-1 28 79 102 86 88 9699
*Red Sea-GB 4 12-1 27 0 0 0 0 9999
5TH RACE: 1 1/16 mi. "BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES
Silverbulletday is a legitimate favorite in here, but not below the
morning line. Excellent Meeting, Confessional and Extended Applause
are likely to be close.
Quick Picks: Silverbulletday Excellent Meeting Three Ring
Pace Profile: Silverbulletday Confessional Extended Applause
Spud Says: Silverbulletday Confessional
Long Shot: Three Ring Extended Applause
CONSENSUS: Silverbulletday(9) Confessional(4) Excellent Meeting(2)
Name RTG P# ML DLR LR EP LP FTS Rank
Silverbulletday ++ 6 8-5 27 98 103 93 96 1261
Excellent Meeting ++ 7 3-1 28 92 101 95 96 5441
*Three Ring + 2 15-1 21 92 86 109 95 5911
*Antahkarana + 5 6-1 28 90 101 94 95 7451
Extended Applause + 1 10-1 27 96 102 92 94 2375
Confessional ++ 10 6-1 28 97 105 88 93 2196
Rayelle 9 15-1 23 90 96 96 92 7826
Grand Deed 8 30-1 27 90 101 89 90 7498
Emanating 11 15-1 27 94 94 96 90 4938
Unbridled Delight 3 50-1 20 87 94 91 85 9989
Bag Lady Jane 4 15-1 21 88 97 87 84 9799
6TH RACE: 6 f. "BREEDER'S CUP SPRINT"
Affirmed Success looks consistent and strong in here. Shortening
up from seven furlongs is a good indicator. We don't think Wild Rush
will get there in time. Reraise is sharp now and may split the other
two. Good price likely on The Exeter Man who has a chance.
Quick Picks: Affirmed Success Reraise The Exeter Man
Pace Profile: Affirmed Success Wild Rush Reraise
Spud Says: Affirmed Success Reraise
Long Shot: The Exeter Man A. P. Assay
CONSENSUS: Affirmed Success(9) Reraise(5) Wild Rush(2)
Name RTG P# ML DLR LR EP LP FTS Rank
*Wild Rush +++ 1 3-1 42 112 99 111 110 1921
Affirmed Success ++ 9 2-1 42 110 106 103 110 2161
Reraise ++ 3 5-1 42 110 105 103 109 2263
The Exeter Man + 7 15-1 21 101 104 102 105 6394
Kona Gold 8 20-1 21 100 102 103 105 9684
A. P. Assay + 6 15-1 21 102 104 101 105 6394
Partner's Hero 4 15-1 20 105 102 101 104 4697
Gold Land 10 8-1 21 103 98 105 103 5937
Richter Scale 11 30-1 62 99 100 102 102 9899
*Grand Slam 14 12-1 21 98 89 113 102 9919
Rare Rock 5 30-1 20 98 104 98 102 9399
J J'sdream 2 50-1 14 101 95 105 101 6939
Furlough 13 30-1 28 100 94 105 99 9939
*Bolshoi-IR 12 30-1 63 0 0 0 0 9999
7TH RACE: 1 mi. Turf "BREEDER'S CUP MILE"
A slight edge here to Labeeb who may surprise with an easy lead.
Almost half the field without a useable record makes this race unpredictable.
Demand a price or sit on your money.
Quick Picks: Labeeb-GB Da Hoss Joyeux Danseur
Pace Profile: Labeeb-GB Military Favorite Trick
Spud Says: Labeeb-GB Favorite Trick
Long Shot: Military Hawksley Hill-IR
CONSENSUS: Labeeb-GB(9) Favorite Trick(3) Da Hoss(2)
Name RTG P# ML DLR LR EP LP FTS Rank
Labeeb-GB +++ 11 4-1 48 107 107 99 106 1171
Da Hoss ++ 3 6-1 27 99 103 103 106 7351
Joyeux Danseur ++ 8 5-1 21 98 100 106 106 7531
Hawksley Hill-IR + 9 10-1 20 103 95 109 104 2624
Military + 7 10-1 34 104 78 125 103 2815
Magellan + 12 20-1 20 101 100 103 103 6465
Favorite Trick + 4 5-1 21 104 104 99 103 2275
Mr Lightfoot-IR 10 20-1 20 103 95 107 102 2638
*Among Men 2 20-1 42 0 0 0 0 9999
*Fly To The Stars-GB 1A 10-1 34 0 0 0 0 9999
*Desert Prince-IR 5 9-2 42 0 0 0 0 9999
*Waky Nao-GB 6 20-1 27 0 0 0 0 9999
*Second Empire-IR 2B 20-1 42 0 0 0 0 9999
*Cape Cross-IR 1 10-1 42 0 0 0 0 9999
8TH RACE: 1 1/8 mi. "BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF"
Banshee Breeze appears to have a clear edge as favorite off her recent,
but Escena can match that if she can return to a few races back.
Dancing Gulch might be close at a price.
Quick Picks: Banshee Breeze Escena Tomisue's Delight
Pace Profile: Banshee Breeze Escena Tomisue's Delight
Spud Says: Banshee Breeze Escena
Long Shot: Dancing Gulch
CONSENSUS: Banshee Breeze(9) Escena(6) Tomisue's Delight(2)
Name RTG P# ML DLR LR EP LP FTS Rank
Banshee Breeze +++ 4 6-5 21 107 103 103 105 1121
Escena ++ 7 2-1 71 98 102 102 104 4142
Tomisue's Delight + 8 8-1 28 100 99 102 101 2443
Keeper Hill + 5 7-2 56 97 83 118 101 4813
Dancing Gulch 2 50-1 42 94 98 103 101 7723
Kirby's Song 1 30-1 28 85 101 99 99 8376
Tuxedo Junction 3 50-1 27 99 99 99 98 3467
Tap to Music 6 8-1 24 96 99 99 98 6478
9TH RACE: 1 1/2 mi. "THE BREEDERS' CUP TURF"
A tight call here so the odds may be important. Royal Anthem is
likely to be a vulnerable favorite, and may not repeat last effort. Why is
Chief Bearhart a reasonable second to Royal Anthem in latest
12 to 1 on the morning line? Buck's Boy has our top figures by
a hair and should get the nod.
Quick Picks: Royal Anthem Daylami-IR Buck's Boy
Pace Profile: Royal Anthem Buck's Boy Chief Bearhart
Spud Says: Buck's Boy Chief Bearhart
Long Shot: Yagli Cetewayo
CONSENSUS: Buck's Boy(6) Royal Anthem(6) Chief Bearhart(3)
Name RTG P# ML DLR LR EP LP FTS Rank
Royal Anthem ++ 8 3-1 20 105 84 121 105 1611
Daylami-IR +- 4 5-1 21 0 85 120 105 9421
Buck's Boy ++ 2 5-1 28 106 84 120 105 1521
Cetewayo + 3 8-1 28 103 84 120 103 3624
Bonapartiste-FR + 5 12-1 34 104 98 106 103 3384
River Bay + 10 12-1 34 100 84 119 103 7624
Chief Bearhart + 9 6-1 20 103 83 119 103 3624
Yagli + 14 15-1 42 103 106 96 103 3194
Dushyantor + 12 15-1 28 95 84 118 102 8674
Frapper Le Or 13 99-1 41 89 90 100 90 9299
*Sunshine Street 11 50-1 56 0 0 0 0 9999
*Caitano-GB 1 20-1 34 0 0 0 0 9999
*Insatiable-IR 6 12-1 21 0 0 0 0 9999
*Leggera-IR 7 12-1 34 0 0 0 0 9999
10TH RACE: 1 1/4 mi. Dirt " THE CLASSIC"
Our figures and selectors find little to chose between the top three in the
CLASSIC. While Silver Charm would seem to have a slight edge in
the ratings and is undefeated at the distance, Skip Away
also has an incredible record at the distance. Gentlemen is likely a
better price than the other two and deserves a close look, especially since his
owners have paid a hefty extra fee to qualify him. Possible surprises,
or to throw into exactas if the odds rise are Awesome Again, Touch Gold
and Victory Gallop.
Quick Picks: Silver Charm Skip Away Gentlemen-AR
Pace Profile: Silver Charm Gentlemen-AR Touch Gold
Spud Says: Skip Away Gentlemen-AR
Long Shot: Victory Gallop Touch Gold (entry)
CONSENSUS: Silver Charm(6) Skip Away(5) Gentlemen-AR(5)
Name RTG P# ML DLR LR EP LP FTS Rank
Silver Charm +++ 7 8-5 21 106 107 103 110 1631
Skip Away +++ 5 9-5 28 100 113 97 109 7252
Gentlemen-AR ++ 8 6-1 28 104 112 95 107 4363
Awesome Again + 1 9-2 28 102 103 105 107 6723
Touch Gold + 1X 9-2 27 105 114 91 105 1175
Victory Gallop + 2 15-1 70 104 92 112 105 4915
Coronado's Quest + 1A 9-2 49 96 102 102 104 9745
Arch + 4 15-1 27 105 112 91 103 1278
Running Stag 6 50-1 28 97 109 92 100 8579
*Swain-IR 3 10-1 56 0 0 0 0 9999