THE KENTUCKY DERBY
from Churchill Downs

May 06,2023

Fast Track Simulcapping

Contenders and Speed Ratings

RTG

contender rating

LR

last race speed rating

P#

program number

EP

early pace rating

ML

morning line odds

LP

late pace rating

DLR

days since last race

FTS

Fast track speed rating

AER

Average earnings ratio

B2

Average FT rating for a horse's best two races

TF

total furlongs raced or worked by a horse in the last three weeks

Rank

rank of B2, LR, EP, LP, FTS each horse



Official Results:

Weather Clear, Track Fast .
#HorseWeightJockeyWinPlaceShow
12Fusaichi Pegasus126Desormeaux K J6.605.604.00
5Aptitude126Solis A O9.805.80
1CImpeachment126Perret C4.00
Finish Time:0
SCRATCHED: Globalize
$2 Exacta 12-5 Paid $66.00
$2 Trifecta 12-5-1 Paid $435.00
$1 Superfecta 12-5-1-9 Paid $1,635.40
$2 Daily Double (4-12) Paid $51.00
$2 Pick Three (1-6-3/12) 3 Correct Paid $1,500.00
$2 Pick Six (14-5-8-1-6-3/12) 5 Correct Paid $9,523.80


Our predictions were close as we predicted the win by FUSAICHI PEGASUS but we missed the place horse for our exacta. In hindsight APTITUDE ran well in the Wood Memorial , and that was clearly the strongest of the derby prep races. As we suspected The Deputy and War Chant coming out of the Santa Anita Derby didn't measure up to expectations.


What We Said:


Race 8: 10 Fur...Dirt ... The KENTUCKY DERBY (Purse $1,000,000)

This may be the first time since 1979 that a favorite wins the Derby if FUSAICHI PEGASUS can prevail. Although all of our Selectors and the Consensus pick him as the top choice none of the margins are great. He may have the best chance, but we are concerned that the odds as reflected by the morning line may be too low to justify a wager in this large contentious field.

Although it is dangerous to leave the strong favorite out, consider looking for a price combining him in an exotic box or two with some of the following well priced contenders, in order of preference:

This game plan ignores the top two finishers in the Santa Anita Derby as we expect that The Deputy and War Chant are likely to disappoint off that race. Neither have been able to run, as shown by either their FTS or B2 ratings, to our calculated 102 par for this group. They may have benefited from being close to a slow pace that faded. It was also a small field. Of course, either or both may rise to the occasion and finish close, and ruin our strategy.


Quick Picks:

Fusaichi Pegasus

More Than Ready

Captain Steve

Pace:

Fusaichi Pegasus

Graeme Hall

War Chant

Class:

Fusaichi Pegasus

Captain Steve

China Visit

Power Play:

Fusaichi Pegasus

War Chant

Trippi

Long Shot:

More Than Ready

Anees

Exchange Rate

CONSENSUS:

Fusaichi Pegasus(12)

Graeme Hall(3)

War Chant(3)

Captain Steve(3)

.

Name

RTG

P#

ML

DLR

TF

AER

B2

LR

EP

LP

FTS

Rank

Fusaichi Pegasus

+++

12

9/5

21

6

85

103

103

103

100

103

21551

Graeme Hall

++-

11

20-1

21

9

37

102

102

100

102

102

62912

Captain Steve

++-

7

8-1

28

20

56

103

98

102

100

102

25752

The Deputy (IRE)

++-

10

4-1

28

17

58

100

101

101

100

100

73954

More Than Ready

9

10-1

21

9

43

110

93

102

98

100

19794

War Chant

++-

8

6-1

28

13

59

100

100

98

102

100

74914

Aptitude

5

20-1

21

10

20

100

98

106

95

100

75194

High Yield

++-

1X

5-1

21

10

62

103

93

105

96

100

29294

Trippi

++-

1

5-1

28

17

39

100

96

104

96

100

78394

Exchange Rate

+-

13

30-1

21

5

21

103

89

99

100

99

29959

Anees

+-

4

20-1

28

18

74

99

96

103

96

99

98599

Hal's Hope

6

20-1

21

4

41

98

80

102

97

98

99799

Commendable

1A

5-1

14

14

9

98

85

102

95

98

99799

Wheelaway

14F

30-1

21

5

24

97

91

95

102

97

99919

Impeachment

++-

1C

5-1

21

12

10

97

98

96

101

96

95949

Deputy Warlock

15F

30-1

21

9

22

96

91

102

93

95

99799

Ronton

16F

30-1

21

8

8

95

93

99

94

94

99999

Globalize

3

50-1

14

18

42

97

85

104

90

93

99399

Curule

2B

50-1

999

8

9

0

0

0

0

0

99999

China Visit

2

50-1

999

14

100

0

0

0

0

0

99999

.