Churchill Downs

May 05,2023


The KENTUCKY DERBY

Fast Track Simulcapping

Contenders and Speed Ratings

RTG

contender rating

LR

last race speed rating

P#

program number

EP

early pace rating

ML

morning line odds

LP

late pace rating

DLR

days since last race

FTS

Fast track speed rating

AER

Average earnings ratio

B2

Average FT rating for a horse's best two races

TF

total furlongs raced or worked by a horse in the last three weeks

Rank

rank of B2, LR, EP, LP, FTS each horse

.

.


Congaree

Point Given

Songandaprayer

Monarchos

Express Tour

Millenium Wind
Race 8: 1 1/4 Miles ... 3Yr Olds...Purse $1,000,000

Our figures point to a close contest between 5 or 6 contenders. The favorite POINT GIVEN may still be the one to beat, but look for better odds than the current 9/5 offered, especially with that awful post position to overcome. Our selectors prefer CONGAREE by a small margin with odds at 5 to 1. Also look for MONARCHOS at 6 to 1 and BALTO STAR at 8 to 1. Our Longshot Selection AP VALENTINE at 15 to 1 may recover from a poor last outing.

We expect some or all of SONGANDAPRAYER, MILLENIUM WIND, and BALTO STAR to be mixing it up on the early lead with POINT GIVEN and CONGAREE sitting a few lengths off. Around the final turn AP VALENTINE should make a move to join those two. We expect it to be close between several at the finsih line, with no easy winner. Slight edge to either CONGAREE or POINT GIVEN. But if you are betting on this race, consider the odds and perhaps go for an exotic box.

  • CONGAREE (5-1)
  • POINT GIVEN (9/5)
  • BALTO STAR (8-1)
  • MONARCHOS (6-1)
  • MILLENIUM WIND (6-1)
  • AP VALENTINE (15-1)
  • EXPRESS TOUR (15-1)

    Quick Picks:

    Congaree

    Point Given

    Monarchos

    Pace:

    Congaree

    A P Valentine

    Monarchos

    Class:

    Point Given

    Congaree

    Express Tour

    Power Play:

    Point Given

    Congaree

    Monarchos

    Long Shot:

    A P Valentine

    CONSENSUS

    Congaree(10)

    Point Given(9)

    Monarchos(3)

    A P Valentine(2)

    .

    Name

    RTG

    P#

    ML

    DLR

    TF

    AER

    B2

    LR

    EP

    LP

    FTS

    Rank

    Point Given

    +++-

    17

    9/5

    28

    14

    47

    104

    103

    102

    102

    104

    12741

    Monarchos

    +-

    16

    6-1

    21

    4

    41

    104

    103

    104

    100

    104

    12561

    A P Valentine

    +++-

    9

    15-1

    21

    10

    16

    104

    84

    106

    98

    104

    19191

    Congaree

    +++-

    8

    5-1

    21

    9

    40

    104

    105

    106

    98

    104

    11191

    Balto Star

    3

    8-1

    21

    5

    28

    103

    102

    102

    100

    103

    54765

    Jamaican Rum

    +-

    15

    50-1

    21

    10

    11

    102

    98

    96

    106

    102

    77916

    Express Tour

    +-

    6

    15-1

    210

    11

    100

    101

    99

    95

    106

    101

    86917

    Startac

    12

    50-1

    21

    6

    13

    100

    91

    99

    100

    100

    99968

    Fifty Stars

    +-

    5

    50-1

    28

    13

    26

    100

    98

    102

    98

    100

    97798

    Millennium Wind

    +-

    2

    6-1

    21

    10

    48

    100

    98

    96

    104

    100

    97938

    Songandaprayer

    1

    20-1

    21

    5

    19

    103

    95

    106

    94

    100

    59198

    Dollar Bill

    +-

    10

    10-1

    21

    9

    18

    100

    88

    102

    97

    99

    99799

    Keats

    +-

    14

    30-1

    14

    16

    13

    98

    92

    106

    92

    98

    99199

    Arctic Boy

    7

    50-1

    21

    5

    3

    97

    90

    100

    98

    97

    99999

    Thunder Blitz

    +-

    4

    30-1

    28

    10

    8

    97

    97

    103

    94

    97

    99699

    Invisible Ink

    13

    30-1

    21

    5

    10

    96

    87

    94

    102

    96

    99949

    Talk Is Money

    +-

    11

    50-1

    14

    15

    5

    96

    100

    98

    98

    96

    95999

    .