|
# |
Program number |
LR |
Last Race speed rating |
|
|
ML |
Morning Line |
B2 |
Avg Best 2 races, last 10 |
|
|
Tr |
Trainer Win Pct |
TR |
Turf Rating |
|
|
Jk |
Jockey Win Pct (* = jock change) |
DR |
Distance Rating |
|
|
DLR |
Days since last race |
RP |
Race Pace Avg 2 pacelines |
|
|
FW |
Furlongs worked 3 weeks |
EP |
Early Pace Avg 2 pacelines |
|
|
AER |
Average Earnings Ratio |
LP |
Late Pace Avg 2 pacelines |
|
|
QS |
Quirin Speed Points (0 to 8) |
FTS |
Final Time Speed Avg 2 pacelines |
Contender Algorithm Factors
|
Speed : |
FTS, B2, DR or TR, and RTG |
|
Pace : |
FTS, RP, EP or LP, DR or TR |
|
Class : |
RP or TR, AER, and ML |
Introduction
Every
year we present a special review and analysis of the Breeders Cup
races featuring some hands on human handicapping observations in
addition to the figs and calculations from computer generated data.
First, some general observations, followed by race by race comments.
This year the races are at Monmouth over two days ... Friday, October
26 and Saturday, October 27 due to an increase in the number of
Breeders Cup races. On Friday the Breeders Cup races are races 8, 9
and 10 on the race card. On Saturday the Breeders Cup races are races
4 through 11.
These races are the closest thing we have in
North America to an annual world championship of horse racing event.
As a result we can expect that the best horses in the world at each
distance and in each category will be entered. They have been guided
and condition towards this race for weeks and months, sometimes all
year by their connections. The trainers are not using this race to
get ready for the next one. Most of these horses will be at the top
of their training and racing cycles. Some may have peaked to early,
but some you haven't shown their best so far will be peaking just
now, for their race of the year.
This means that favorites
have to be considered more critically than in an ordinary racing
card. Most of them prove to be underlays on Breeders Cup Day, facing
much stiffer and more even competition than handicappers are used to
taking into account. Past results from Breeders Cup races bears this
out. So when backing a favorite at the betting window demand better
odds than usual, and be sure to feel confident when eliminating other
contenders that they will not be rounding into form and coming up
with a big effort today. Look closely at the second and third choices
of the crowd. Look for horses that have finished close to the top
contenders in previous races that might be ready to turn the tables.
Sometimes they will go off at much higher odds with only a few
lengths to make up off earlier races.
Another key factor is
trying to figure out how to handle the horses shipped in from Europe.
To be honest, there is a lot of guesswork involved with this because
the data available means we're comparing apples and oranges. One of
the best approaches is to pay attention to how they fared against
each other in the past and then look for good performances in later
races by those who did well against horses performing well in the
earlier races. The Turf Classic for instance has been won 6 of the
last 7 times by horses shipping over from Europe. Since there is a
tendency of North American bettors to back the home team, there may
be an overlay or two among the European horses, especially for that
race.
Race 1 : [ Md
Sp Wt ] 6 Fs. ... on Dirt ... for Fillies 2 Yr Olds / Purse: $ 50000
|
Speed: |
Throbbin' Heart |
Rise Up Singing |
Lion's Maddy |
|
Pace: |
Rise Up Singing |
Throbbin' Heart |
Lion's Maddy |
|
Class: |
Throbbin' Heart |
Rise Up Singing |
Lion's Maddy |
|
LongShot: |
Ay Papi |
|
RTG |
# |
ML |
Tr |
Jk |
DLR |
FW |
AER |
QS |
LR |
B2 |
DR |
RP |
EP |
LP |
FTS |
|
|
Throbbin' Heart |
+ |
5 |
5/2 |
21 |
13 |
27 |
9 |
100 |
5 |
84 |
92 |
0 |
100 |
98 |
94 |
92 |
|
Rise Up Singing |
+N |
2 |
7/2 |
9 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
60 |
6 |
79 |
81 |
79 |
95 |
98 |
83 |
81 |
|
Lion's Maddy |
n |
4 |
4-1 |
12 |
21 |
24 |
8 |
36 |
0 |
76 |
78 |
76 |
94 |
93 |
85 |
78 |
|
Ay Papi |
7 |
10-1 |
16 |
* 17 |
38 |
10 |
19 |
0 |
69 |
69 |
0 |
85 |
81 |
88 |
69 |
|
|
Life Lesson |
3 |
8-1 |
16 |
* 20 |
0 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Brush The Rail |
6 |
8-1 |
24 |
* 25 |
13 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
11 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Nicksappealinglady |
8 |
12-1 |
13 |
* 14 |
0 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Bootsie Mcginnis |
9 |
15-1 |
8 |
* 12 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Champagne Coolie |
1 |
9/2 |
14 |
* 21 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Top Fives
|
RP
|
EP
|
LP
|
FTS
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
B2
|
DR
|
TR |
LR
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Rise Up Singing |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Life Lesson |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Lion's Maddy |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Throbbin' Heart |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Brush The Rail |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 2 : [ Md
Sp Wt ] 6 Fs. ... on Dirt ... for 2 Yr Olds / Purse: $ 50000
|
Speed: |
Consider Me |
Now Or Never |
D' Wildcard |
|
Pace: |
Consider Me |
Now Or Never |
D' Wildcard |
|
Class: |
D' Wildcard |
Consider Me |
Now Or Never |
|
LongShot: |
D' Wildcard |
|
RTG |
# |
ML |
Tr |
Jk |
DLR |
FW |
AER |
QS |
LR |
B2 |
DR |
RP |
EP |
LP |
FTS |
|
|
Consider Me |
+++ |
2 |
7/2 |
20 |
* 25 |
13 |
4 |
90 |
6 |
81 |
82 |
82 |
93 |
94 |
88 |
82 |
|
Now Or Never |
+- |
2X |
7/2 |
20 |
* 25 |
45 |
5 |
80 |
6 |
78 |
82 |
0 |
94 |
94 |
88 |
82 |
|
D' Wildcard |
+ |
10 |
6-1 |
18 |
18 |
34 |
8 |
100 |
6 |
80 |
82 |
0 |
94 |
93 |
89 |
82 |
|
Osceola Prince |
3 |
9/2 |
28 |
* 20 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Golden Fusaichi |
4 |
12-1 |
24 |
* 16 |
0 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Ben's Moon |
5 |
8-1 |
15 |
* 21 |
0 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Flying Vee |
6 |
8-1 |
10 |
* 14 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Massive Drama |
7 |
3-1 |
18 |
* 19 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Prayer Answered |
8 |
15-1 |
8 |
* 6 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Megalodon |
9 |
20-1 |
13 |
* 12 |
22 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
69 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Southern Gale |
1A |
6-1 |
13 |
* 18 |
0 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Tiz It |
1 |
6-1 |
13 |
* 18 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Top Fives
|
RP
|
EP
|
LP
|
FTS
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
B2
|
DR
|
TR |
LR
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Megalodon |
46 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Consider Me |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Osceola Prince |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Now Or Never |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Golden Fusaichi |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 3 : [
Alw 70000n1x ] Mile 1/16 ... on Dirt ... for 3 Yr Olds & Up /
Purse: $ 70000
|
Speed: |
Intuition Magic |
Marvel Wood |
U R Da Best |
|
Pace: |
Warrior's Vow |
Ramapo |
Intuition Magic |
|
Class: |
U R Da Best |
Subtitles |
Hawkinsville |
|
LongShot: |
Communicator |
Warrior's Vow |
|
RTG |
# |
ML |
Tr |
Jk |
DLR |
FW |
AER |
QS |
LR |
B2 |
DR |
RP |
EP |
LP |
FTS |
|
|
U R Da Best |
+ |
14 |
10-1 |
18 |
16 |
27 |
5 |
85 |
6 |
84 |
92 |
0 |
100 |
101 |
91 |
92 |
|
Intuition Magic |
+ |
5 |
8-1 |
28 |
19 |
29 |
13 |
46 |
8 |
87 |
91 |
58 |
97 |
95 |
96 |
91 |
|
Marvel Wood |
++- |
9 |
5-1 |
19 |
* 20 |
32 |
4 |
65 |
7 |
77 |
91 |
91 |
94 |
92 |
99 |
91 |
|
Wisp |
++ |
10 |
4-1 |
9 |
* 21 |
20 |
4 |
34 |
5 |
90 |
92 |
92 |
96 |
90 |
97 |
87 |
|
Greg Got Even |
nn |
11 |
8-1 |
12 |
* 25 |
35 |
12 |
53 |
3 |
83 |
88 |
88 |
96 |
93 |
94 |
87 |
|
Subtitles |
N- |
12 |
8-1 |
13 |
* 14 |
45 |
9 |
100 |
8 |
84 |
89 |
0 |
98 |
96 |
91 |
87 |
|
Value Player |
7 |
6-1 |
25 |
* 20 |
5 |
10 |
55 |
5 |
87 |
87 |
87 |
95 |
93 |
92 |
85 |
|
|
Hawkinsville |
++ |
3 |
10-1 |
28 |
18 |
21 |
4 |
59 |
2 |
78 |
94 |
94 |
95 |
88 |
96 |
84 |
|
Warrior's Vow |
6 |
20-1 |
22 |
* 18 |
19 |
8 |
54 |
5 |
90 |
84 |
84 |
92 |
94 |
90 |
84 |
|
|
Andy L |
8 |
30-1 |
11 |
* 14 |
23 |
4 |
45 |
5 |
71 |
86 |
86 |
94 |
97 |
87 |
84 |
|
|
Ramapo |
- |
13 |
12-1 |
10 |
* 6 |
23 |
0 |
57 |
7 |
80 |
84 |
84 |
96 |
98 |
86 |
84 |
|
Communicator |
++ |
1 |
20-1 |
16 |
* 15 |
20 |
9 |
51 |
0 |
79 |
90 |
90 |
96 |
93 |
91 |
84 |
|
Perrycarditus |
4 |
10-1 |
15 |
* 16 |
19 |
4 |
30 |
3 |
73 |
86 |
86 |
92 |
82 |
98 |
80 |
|
|
I'm Not Guilty |
nn- |
2 |
50-1 |
14 |
* 5 |
29 |
5 |
9 |
6 |
71 |
88 |
88 |
95 |
88 |
91 |
79 |
Top Fives
|
RP
|
EP
|
LP
|
FTS
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
B2
|
DR
|
TR |
LR
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Greg Got Even |
81 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Hawkinsville |
80 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Perrycarditus |
80 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Intuition Magic |
78 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
I'm Not Guilty |
64 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 4 : [
Alw 80000n2x ] Mile 1/8 ... on Dirt ... for 3 Yr Olds & Up /
Purse: $ 80000
|
Speed: |
Three In The Bag |
Echo Quest |
Hunting |
|
Pace: |
Red Sail At Sunset |
Echo Quest |
Three In The Bag |
|
Class: |
Now A Victor |
Three In The Bag |
Hunting |
|
LongShot: |
Echo Quest |
|
RTG |
# |
ML |
Tr |
Jk |
DLR |
FW |
AER |
QS |
LR |
B2 |
DR |
RP |
EP |
LP |
FTS |
|
|
Now A Victor |
+ |
11 |
9/2 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
8 |
100 |
6 |
91 |
96 |
0 |
102 |
106 |
90 |
96 |
|
Three In The Bag |
++- |
4 |
7/2 |
26 |
* 16 |
33 |
4 |
32 |
7 |
90 |
98 |
96 |
102 |
107 |
87 |
94 |
|
Echo Quest |
+ |
6 |
15-1 |
24 |
* 20 |
18 |
0 |
14 |
7 |
93 |
94 |
90 |
96 |
100 |
94 |
94 |
|
Hunting |
+N |
7 |
6-1 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
4 |
31 |
3 |
90 |
95 |
92 |
102 |
97 |
96 |
93 |
|
Call The Marines |
+- |
3 |
12-1 |
16 |
* 18 |
23 |
0 |
18 |
5 |
86 |
94 |
88 |
100 |
102 |
90 |
92 |
|
Zoffinger |
++ |
8 |
10-1 |
14 |
9 |
21 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
84 |
94 |
93 |
102 |
86 |
104 |
90 |
|
El Chile Dog |
- |
10 |
10-1 |
24 |
* 21 |
49 |
8 |
20 |
0 |
81 |
89 |
87 |
96 |
97 |
92 |
89 |
|
Red Sail At Sunset |
+ |
12 |
12-1 |
13 |
* 17 |
18 |
0 |
31 |
5 |
86 |
93 |
85 |
98 |
100 |
89 |
89 |
|
Hurrah |
- |
5 |
10-1 |
22 |
* 14 |
24 |
0 |
16 |
2 |
84 |
88 |
0 |
97 |
98 |
90 |
88 |
|
Lightning Bolt |
1A |
20-1 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
4 |
11 |
5 |
86 |
90 |
84 |
98 |
96 |
92 |
88 |
|
|
Keeneland Kid |
N- |
9 |
8-1 |
14 |
16 |
34 |
4 |
18 |
3 |
92 |
92 |
78 |
96 |
96 |
92 |
88 |
|
Lenny |
1 |
20-1 |
16 |
14 |
28 |
9 |
11 |
5 |
90 |
90 |
84 |
92 |
94 |
93 |
87 |
|
|
Crusader Rabbit |
N |
13 |
10-1 |
16 |
21 |
17 |
4 |
25 |
6 |
83 |
92 |
85 |
97 |
92 |
93 |
85 |
|
Mambo Master |
2 |
30-1 |
8 |
12 |
21 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
80 |
86 |
73 |
96 |
84 |
96 |
80 |
Top Fives
|
RP
|
EP
|
LP
|
FTS
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
B2
|
DR
|
TR |
LR
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Mambo Master |
84 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Hurrah |
80 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Three In The Bag |
77 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Zoffinger |
53 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Lenny |
52 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 5 : [
InsdInfoBC250 ] Mile 1/16 ... on Dirt ... for Fillies 3 Yr Olds /
Purse: $ 250000
|
Speed: |
Boca Grande |
Tessa Blue |
Talkin About Love |
|
Pace: |
Tessa Blue |
Lost Etiquette |
Honorable Truth |
|
Class: |
Boca Grande |
Talkin About Love |
Tessa Blue |
|
LongShot: |
Bare Dancer |
|
RTG |
# |
ML |
Tr |
Jk |
DLR |
FW |
AER |
QS |
LR |
B2 |
DR |
RP |
EP |
LP |
FTS |
|
|
Boca Grande |
+ |
2 |
2-1 |
16 |
* 16 |
21 |
4 |
67 |
2 |
89 |
96 |
92 |
104 |
94 |
102 |
96 |
|
Tessa Blue |
++ |
3 |
9/5 |
12 |
12 |
21 |
5 |
63 |
8 |
98 |
96 |
96 |
100 |
101 |
95 |
96 |
|
Talkin About Love |
++ |
1 |
5/2 |
17 |
14 |
34 |
7 |
100 |
5 |
92 |
95 |
95 |
100 |
98 |
97 |
95 |
|
Bare Dancer |
5 |
20-1 |
0 |
* 21 |
14 |
0 |
13 |
0 |
94 |
92 |
88 |
101 |
90 |
102 |
92 |
|
|
Lost Etiquette |
4 |
7/2 |
20 |
* 19 |
14 |
7 |
24 |
8 |
84 |
92 |
92 |
94 |
96 |
94 |
90 |
|
|
Honorable Truth |
6 |
20-1 |
9 |
* 18 |
15 |
4 |
16 |
8 |
79 |
85 |
79 |
98 |
94 |
91 |
85 |
Top Fives
|
RP
|
EP
|
LP
|
FTS
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
B2
|
DR
|
TR |
LR
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Lost Etiquette |
51 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Bare Dancer |
48 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Boca Grande |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Tessa Blue |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Honorable Truth |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 6 : [
EpitomeBC250k ] One Mile ... on Turf ... for Fillies 2 Yr Olds /
Purse: $ 250000
|
Speed: |
Sea Chanter |
Namaste's Wish |
Cato Major |
|
Pace: |
Sales Tax |
Sammy Van Ammy |
Grace And Power |
|
Class: |
Dagger |
Life Is Sweet |
Bsharpsonata |
|
LongShot: |
Sales Tax |
|
RTG |
# |
ML |
Tr |
Jk |
DLR |
FW |
AER |
QS |
LR |
B2 |
TR |
RP |
EP |
LP |
FTS |
|
|
Dagger |
+- |
10 |
15-1 |
13 |
* 20 |
27 |
3 |
41 |
8 |
86 |
90 |
0 |
100 |
96 |
92 |
88 |
|
Life Is Sweet |
+ |
5 |
6-1 |
21 |
* 13 |
19 |
4 |
42 |
1 |
84 |
87 |
57 |
99 |
88 |
98 |
86 |
|
Bsharpsonata |
+ |
6 |
20-1 |
18 |
13 |
34 |
9 |
39 |
8 |
83 |
88 |
0 |
94 |
95 |
89 |
84 |
|
Sea Chanter |
nn |
2 |
9/2 |
23 |
18 |
26 |
4 |
31 |
6 |
81 |
83 |
83 |
94 |
85 |
98 |
83 |
|
Namaste's Wish |
nn |
4 |
4-1 |
21 |
19 |
26 |
8 |
58 |
4 |
82 |
83 |
83 |
92 |
88 |
95 |
83 |
|
Cato Major |
nn |
7 |
10-1 |
17 |
16 |
34 |
12 |
100 |
0 |
82 |
83 |
83 |
92 |
86 |
97 |
83 |
|
Sammy Van Ammy |
9 |
12-1 |
25 |
* 16 |
34 |
10 |
46 |
4 |
81 |
82 |
79 |
92 |
90 |
91 |
81 |
|
|
Sales Tax |
12 |
10-1 |
17 |
14 |
27 |
10 |
55 |
5 |
74 |
82 |
81 |
93 |
92 |
89 |
81 |
|
|
Grace And Power |
1 |
10-1 |
30 |
17 |
27 |
5 |
74 |
6 |
74 |
76 |
76 |
83 |
80 |
96 |
76 |
|
|
Saki To Me |
3 |
12-1 |
16 |
25 |
30 |
10 |
70 |
6 |
69 |
74 |
0 |
86 |
90 |
82 |
72 |
|
|
Joffe's Run |
11 |
8-1 |
0 |
* 0 |
20 |
0 |
14 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
|
Annie Skates |
8 |
5-1 |
0 |
* 20 |
20 |
0 |
23 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Top Fives
|
RP
|
EP
|
LP
|
FTS
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
B2
|
DR
|
TR |
LR
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Sea Chanter |
83 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Namaste's Wish |
83 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Cato Major |
83 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Sales Tax |
81 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Sammy Van Ammy |
79 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 7 : [
FvrtTrckBC250 ] 6 Fs. ... on Dirt ... for 2 Yr Olds / Purse: $ 250000
|
Speed: |
Lantana Mob |
Law Enforcement |
West Coast Coach |
|
Pace: |
Jazz Nation |
Lantana Mob |
Law Enforcement |
|
Class: |
Law Enforcement |
Lantana Mob |
West Coast Coach |
|
LongShot: |
Indy Joe |
|
RTG |
# |
ML |
Tr |
Jk |
DLR |
FW |
AER |
QS |
LR |
B2 |
DR |
RP |
EP |
LP |
FTS |
|
|
Lantana Mob |
++ |
3 |
3-1 |
21 |
* 20 |
20 |
4 |
58 |
5 |
92 |
98 |
98 |
104 |
103 |
95 |
98 |
|
Law Enforcement |
+ |
5 |
7/2 |
15 |
* 20 |
20 |
4 |
100 |
3 |
86 |
98 |
94 |
102 |
103 |
95 |
98 |
|
Officer Frank |
N |
7 |
5-1 |
0 |
* 19 |
40 |
13 |
31 |
6 |
94 |
96 |
0 |
100 |
99 |
97 |
96 |
|
West Coast Coach |
N |
8 |
4-1 |
24 |
* 18 |
48 |
11 |
40 |
6 |
91 |
96 |
91 |
101 |
102 |
94 |
96 |
|
Jazz Nation |
9 |
10-1 |
13 |
* 19 |
18 |
5 |
67 |
6 |
89 |
91 |
0 |
99 |
104 |
87 |
91 |
|
|
Indy Joe |
1A |
8-1 |
24 |
25 |
27 |
10 |
38 |
6 |
85 |
89 |
89 |
98 |
102 |
87 |
89 |
|
|
Run Sully Run |
6 |
20-1 |
24 |
21 |
32 |
8 |
27 |
6 |
88 |
88 |
0 |
96 |
98 |
90 |
88 |
|
|
Cobra Strike |
2 |
6-1 |
16 |
9 |
27 |
8 |
57 |
5 |
86 |
88 |
86 |
97 |
99 |
89 |
88 |
|
|
Tide Dancer |
1 |
8-1 |
24 |
* 12 |
27 |
8 |
19 |
6 |
84 |
87 |
84 |
98 |
92 |
94 |
86 |
|
|
Margo's Gift |
4 |
10-1 |
18 |
* 26 |
27 |
8 |
29 |
2 |
76 |
82 |
82 |
96 |
88 |
94 |
82 |
Top Fives
|
RP
|
EP
|
LP
|
FTS
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
B2
|
DR
|
TR |
LR
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Tide Dancer |
56 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Lantana Mob |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Margo's Gift |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Law Enforcement |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Run Sully Run |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 8 : [
Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint] 6 Fs. ... on Dirt ... for
Fillies and Mares 3 Yr Olds & Up / Purse: $ 1000000
There is not much to separate the top rated horses in this one in terms of their ratings. The top rating goes to La Traviata (5/2) with a 102, but she is followed very closely by Shaggy Mane (12-1) with a 101 and then several tied at 100, including Dream Rush (2-1). Wild Gams (10-1) has the best Distance Rating but will be coming from off the pace so may not get the best trip. The highest early speed rating seems to go Shaggy Mane. She has also worked well recently off a poor last outing. If that one can be thrown out she may be the choice for a longshot chance. Another one apparently being overlooked is Maryfield (15-1) with several good recent races and excellent works going into this. Baroness Thatcher (12-1) has been close with these, but beaten also by Dream Rush. She may prefer a longer distance as well.
I think the top chance is likely Dream Rush who has the edge on La Traviata in terms of experience having won at higher levels and with two good recent G1 victories. A knock against both of them is their age. They are coming up against older horses here. La Traviata will have the most to overcome in terms of experience.
This is a tough one to call. I don't think the odds on the favorites are likely to justify backing them. For value I would rate them in this order (with preferred odds):
Shaggy Mane (8-1)
Maryfield (10-1)
Dream Rush (4-1)
Baroness Thatcher (8-1)
|
Speed: |
La Traviata |
Shaggy Mane |
Oprah Winney |
|
Pace: |
La Traviata |
Maryfield |
Dream Rush |
|
Class: |
Dream Rush |
Oprah Winney |
La Traviata |
|
LongShot: |
Maryfield |
|
RTG |
# |
ML |
Tr |
Jk |
DLR |
FW |
AER |
QS |
LR |
B2 |
DR |
RP |
EP |
LP |
FTS |
|
|
La Traviata |
++ |
7 |
5/2 |
0 |
19 |
62 |
14 |
48 |
7 |
104 |
102 |
102 |
106 |
108 |
94 |
102 |
|
Shaggy Mane |
++ |
9 |
12-1 |
6 |
16 |
41 |
15 |
49 |
8 |
74 |
102 |
102 |
106 |
112 |
89 |
101 |
|
Dream Rush |
+ |
3 |
2-1 |
18 |
18 |
83 |
14 |
100 |
8 |
96 |
100 |
97 |
104 |
104 |
96 |
100 |
|
Maryfield |
++ |
4 |
15-1 |
15 |
20 |
61 |
14 |
46 |
2 |
98 |
101 |
101 |
106 |
106 |
94 |
100 |
|
Oprah Winney |
++ |
6 |
6-1 |
25 |
20 |
47 |
16 |
72 |
5 |
87 |
102 |
102 |
104 |
105 |
95 |
100 |
|
Miss Macy Sue |
++ |
1 |
6-1 |
19 |
14 |
41 |
13 |
80 |
5 |
97 |
100 |
100 |
104 |
104 |
95 |
99 |
|
Baroness Thatcher |
n |
10 |
12-1 |
0 |
* 19 |
20 |
4 |
34 |
4 |
91 |
98 |
91 |
104 |
105 |
93 |
98 |
|
Wild Gams |
++ |
8 |
10-1 |
15 |
25 |
20 |
3 |
63 |
2 |
94 |
104 |
104 |
102 |
99 |
98 |
97 |
|
Miraculous Miss |
n |
2 |
15-1 |
30 |
* 24 |
27 |
4 |
45 |
2 |
93 |
98 |
97 |
102 |
97 |
99 |
96 |
|
Jazzy |
5 |
20-1 |
15 |
* 17 |
34 |
13 |
39 |
3 |
92 |
95 |
0 |
100 |
96 |
98 |
94 |
Top Fives
|
RP
|
EP
|
LP
|
FTS
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
B2
|
DR
|
TR |
LR
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Jazzy |
91 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Maryfield |
59 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Baroness Thatcher |
57 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Miraculous Miss |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Dream Rush |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 9 : [
Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf] One Mile ... on Turf ... for 2 Yr Olds /
Purse: $ 1000000
|
Speed: |
Cherokee Triangle |
Cannonball |
Prussian |
|
Pace: |
Prussian |
Cannonball |
Cherokee Triangle |
|
Class: |
Preachin Man |
The Leopard |
Nownownow |
|
LongShot: |
Cannonball |
The European horses are difficult to assess with none of them coming over with a G1 victory. The best performer overseas seems to be Strike The Deal (9/2) and his connections have a solid record with horses shipping over. Trying to take anticipated value into account I am inclined to the following choices (with the preferred odds) for this race:
Cannonball (8-1)
Strike The Deal (9/2)
Prussian (5-1)
Texas Fever (30-1)
Preachin Man (30-1)
|
RTG |
# |
ML |
Tr |
Jk |
DLR |
FW |
AER |
QS |
LR |
B2 |
TR |
RP |
EP |
LP |
FTS |
|
|
Preachin Man |
+ |
10 |
50-1 |
16 |
16 |
27 |
9 |
42 |
8 |
87 |
98 |
0 |
101 |
104 |
92 |
96 |
|
Cherokee Triangle |
++ |
4 |
10-1 |
29 |
20 |
34 |
15 |
48 |
5 |
90 |
90 |
90 |
92 |
86 |
104 |
90 |
|
Nownownow |
+ |
7 |
10-1 |
0 |
19 |
19 |
5 |
22 |
3 |
76 |
90 |
83 |
98 |
86 |
104 |
90 |
|
The Leopard |
+ |
3 |
8-1 |
23 |
18 |
27 |
9 |
28 |
8 |
81 |
94 |
55 |
96 |
92 |
96 |
88 |
|
Cannonball |
nn |
2 |
50-1 |
28 |
* 20 |
5 |
10 |
21 |
6 |
88 |
87 |
87 |
95 |
94 |
93 |
87 |
|
Prussian |
nn |
9 |
3-1 |
21 |
19 |
40 |
13 |
100 |
6 |
89 |
87 |
87 |
92 |
90 |
97 |
87 |
|
Gio Ponti |
6 |
8-1 |
24 |
25 |
19 |
4 |
68 |
4 |
78 |
82 |
82 |
86 |
80 |
102 |
82 |
|
|
Texas Fever |
11 |
30-1 |
16 |
* 20 |
27 |
9 |
22 |
7 |
81 |
84 |
0 |
89 |
89 |
93 |
82 |
|
|
Your Round |
1 |
30-1 |
16 |
* 17 |
19 |
5 |
17 |
3 |
74 |
82 |
82 |
90 |
84 |
98 |
82 |
|
|
Strike The Deal |
5 |
9/2 |
0 |
* 0 |
21 |
0 |
34 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Achill Island |
- |
8 |
7/2 |
0 |
* 20 |
27 |
0 |
24 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Domestic Fund |
- |
12 |
5-1 |
0 |
* 0 |
26 |
0 |
16 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Top Fives
|
RP
|
EP
|
LP
|
FTS
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
B2
|
DR
|
TR |
LR
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Cherokee Triangle |
90 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Cannonball |
87 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Prussian |
87 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Nownownow |
83 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Gio Ponti |
82 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 10 : [
Breeders Cup Dirt Mi1e] Mile & 70 yds ... on Dirt ... for 3 Yr
Olds & Up / Purse: $ 1000000
|
Speed: |
Gottcha Gold |
Wanderin Boy |
Lewis Michael |
|
Pace: |
Gottcha Gold |
Lewis Michael |
Corinthian |
|
Class: |
Discreet Cat |
Gottcha Gold |
Corinthian |
|
LongShot: |
Gottcha Gold |
Top prospects to put the favorite away seem to be Corinthian (7/2) and Wanderin Boy (8-1). Corinthian's record shows no races at the distance and he was recently well beaten by Lawyer Ron (running in the Classic on Saturday). Wanderin Boy ran a good second to Lawyer Ron in the Whitney and a strong record at this distance. He has also put in some very impressive works in October getting fit for this race. Another with a good record at the distance but in cheaper company is Park Avenue Ball (15-1). Again he comes into this with solid works. Lewis Michael (6-1) Gottcha Gold (8-1) is likely to set the pace or be close to it. With two solid wins in G3 races and a good record at this track he could be poised for an upset.
My value selections for this one:
Wanderin Boy (3-1)
Corinthian (5-1)
Gottcha Gold (8-1)
Lewis Michael (8-1)
Park Avenue Ball (20-1)
|
RTG |
# |
ML |
Tr |
Jk |
DLR |
FW |
AER |
QS |
LR |
B2 |
DR |
RP |
EP |
LP |
FTS |
|
|
Gottcha Gold |
+ |
6 |
8-1 |
16 |
16 |
69 |
15 |
27 |
8 |
106 |
107 |
96 |
109 |
110 |
97 |
107 |
|
Lewis Michael |
+ |
2 |
6-1 |
33 |
* 18 |
27 |
9 |
33 |
5 |
97 |
106 |
98 |
108 |
108 |
98 |
106 |
|
Wanderin Boy |
+N- |
3 |
8-1 |
13 |
* 15 |
55 |
8 |
32 |
7 |
86 |
107 |
104 |
106 |
103 |
103 |
106 |
|
Corinthian |
N |
8 |
7/2 |
26 |
19 |
55 |
12 |
59 |
4 |
100 |
104 |
95 |
108 |
106 |
97 |
103 |
|
Discreet Cat |
+ |
1 |
2-1 |
28 |
20 |
26 |
13 |
100 |
5 |
92 |
108 |
0 |
106 |
107 |
95 |
102 |
|
Park Avenue Ball |
N |
7 |
15-1 |
13 |
* 21 |
26 |
10 |
17 |
7 |
92 |
104 |
101 |
104 |
100 |
101 |
101 |
|
High Finance |
5 |
5-1 |
18 |
18 |
55 |
16 |
17 |
8 |
97 |
102 |
0 |
108 |
104 |
96 |
100 |
|
|
Xchanger |
9 |
6-1 |
24 |
* 25 |
21 |
4 |
35 |
3 |
91 |
101 |
93 |
104 |
103 |
97 |
100 |
|
|
Forefathers |
4 |
20-1 |
21 |
* 8 |
19 |
4 |
7 |
6 |
101 |
100 |
0 |
104 |
104 |
92 |
96 |
Top Fives
|
RP
|
EP
|
LP
|
FTS
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
B2
|
DR
|
TR |
LR
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Gottcha Gold |
85 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Park Avenue Ball |
63 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Lewis Michael |
61 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Forefathers |
3 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Wanderin Boy |
0 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||