Fast Track Simulcapping
RTG |
contender rating |
LR |
last race speed rating |
P# |
program number |
EP |
early pace rating |
ML |
morning line odds |
LP |
late pace rating |
DLR |
days since last race |
FTS |
Fast track speed rating |
AER |
Average earnings ratio |
B2 |
Average FT rating for a horse's best two races |
TF |
total furlongs raced or worked by a horse in the last three weeks |
Rank |
rank of B2, LR, EP, LP, FTS each horse |
Spud Says:
May 15, 2023
A lot of interesting developments leading up to the Preakness this Saturday at Pimlico. First the Miami Herald slanders Funny Cide's jockey, Jose Santos, alleging he cheated in the Kentucky Derby, using an electric battery device to motivate the winner. Turns out to be a figment of their imagination, or some dust on their camera lense. And after the connections of many of the main contenders bailed out of the Preakness, saving themselves for the Belmont, we were first left with a 5 or 6 horse field, which has now expanded again to 10 with a number of unlikely contestants. The end result is we have two strong contenders starting in Funny Cide and Peace Rules, but very little else.
This has been turning into a more frequent occurance in recent years, with more and more trainers and owners shying away from the two week turnaround between the Derby and the Preakness. The result is the second leg of the Triple Crown has become less meaningful. How can this be fixed? At least two possibilities come to mind. First, what is wrong with a three week break between the Derby and the Preakness? Give them all an extra week's rest. This is more in keeping with modern theories of thoroughbred conditioning, with longer breaks between races than in the past generally. Some will argue that the classic format shouldn't be altered, otherwise a horse winning the Triple Crown will have a cheapened victory. But don't we already cheapen the feat by reducing the strength of the field in the second leg of the challenge? Another idea is to change the bonus structure. Right now VISA offers a $5-million bonus for a Triple Crown winner. In the past there was also a bonus for the top score put in by a horse during the three races. This should be re-instated (with or without the adjusted rest between the first two races), with say a $1-million or $2-million bonus paid to the horse with the best overall result in the Triple Crown races. A simple system such as points awarded for first, second and third place finishes would suffice. It would certainly motivate the connections to run legitimate contenders in all three races.
What about the race? I think we're going to see a two horse showdown between Funny Cide and Peace Rules. Because of all the unfortunate controversy plaguing Santos this week, and our annual desire to see the dream of the Triple Crown winner advance to the final race, we'll go with Funny Cide, but there is little to pick between the two. Peace Rules survived being part of a sharp pace in the Derby, which bodes well for his chance to come back and win here. Others with a chance are Ten Cents A Shine, Cherokees Boy, Kissin Saint and Scrimshaw. Of those I'm leaning to Ten Cents A Shine, who has two good works after an improvement running ten wide in the Derby, and Cherokees Boy, with our third highest ratings. However, it is Scrimshaw that qualifies under our QC (Qualified Contenders) criteria.
Spud Says: Funny Cide, Peace Rules, Ten Cents A Shine, Cherokees Boy
The QCs: Funny Cide, Peace Rules, Scrimshaw, Cherokees Boy
Race 12: M & 3/16.....PREAKNESS ... Purse $1,000,000
Quick Picks: |
Funny Cide |
Cherokee's Boy |
Peace Rules |
Pace: |
Funny Cide |
Peace Rules |
Cherokee's Boy |
Class: |
Funny Cide |
Peace Rules |
Cherokee's Boy |
Power Play: |
Funny Cide |
Cherokee's Boy |
Peace Rules |
Long Shot: |
Ten Cents A Shine |
||
CONSENSUS |
Funny Cide(12) |
Peace Rules(6) |
Cherokee's Boy(6) |
Scrimshaw(1) |
Name |
RTG |
P# |
ML |
DLR |
TF |
AER |
B2 |
LR |
EP |
LP |
FTS |
Rank |
Funny Cide |
+++ |
9 |
7/5 |
14 |
19 |
100 |
102 |
98 |
102 |
100 |
102 |
23521 |
Peace Rules |
+++ |
7 |
8/5 |
14 |
16 |
76 |
104 |
97 |
103 |
98 |
102 |
15251 |
Cherokee's Boy |
++ |
2 |
15-1 |
28 |
13 |
20 |
101 |
104 |
100 |
100 |
101 |
41623 |
Scrimshaw |
+ |
1 |
5-1 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
102 |
91 |
103 |
98 |
101 |
29253 |
Kissin Saint |
|
4 |
20-1 |
35 |
5 |
17 |
99 |
95 |
96 |
103 |
99 |
57915 |
Foufa's Warrior |
+- |
3 |
20-1 |
15 |
12 |
18 |
99 |
98 |
103 |
96 |
99 |
53275 |
New York Hero |
++- |
8 |
20-1 |
14 |
19 |
34 |
99 |
97 |
106 |
92 |
98 |
55197 |
Senor Swinger |
++- |
1A |
5-1 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
98 |
100 |
98 |
100 |
98 |
82927 |
Midway Road |
+- |
6 |
20-1 |
23 |
15 |
8 |
94 |
88 |
100 |
94 |
94 |
99699 |
Ten Cents a Shine |
+- |
5 |
15-1 |
14 |
19 |
6 |
95 |
93 |
100 |
95 |
94 |
98689 |