The Preakness Preview

 

 Fast Track Simulcapping

Contenders and Speed Ratings

RTG

contender rating

LR

last race speed rating

P#

program number

EP

early pace rating

ML

morning line odds

LP

late pace rating

DLR

days since last race

FTS

Fast track speed rating

AER

Average earnings ratio

B2

Average FT rating for a horse's best two races

TF

total furlongs raced or worked by a horse in the last three weeks

Rank

rank of B2, LR, EP, LP, FTS each horse

 

Spud Says:

May 15, 2023

A lot of interesting developments leading up to the Preakness this Saturday at Pimlico. First the Miami Herald slanders Funny Cide's jockey, Jose Santos, alleging he cheated in the Kentucky Derby, using an electric battery device to motivate the winner. Turns out to be a figment of their imagination, or some dust on their camera lense. And after the connections of many of the main contenders bailed out of the Preakness, saving themselves for the Belmont, we were first left with a 5 or 6 horse field, which has now expanded again to 10 with a number of unlikely contestants. The end result is we have two strong contenders starting in Funny Cide and Peace Rules, but very little else.

This has been turning into a more frequent occurance in recent years, with more and more trainers and owners shying away from the two week turnaround between the Derby and the Preakness. The result is the second leg of the Triple Crown has become less meaningful. How can this be fixed? At least two possibilities come to mind. First, what is wrong with a three week break between the Derby and the Preakness? Give them all an extra week's rest. This is more in keeping with modern theories of thoroughbred conditioning, with longer breaks between races than in the past generally. Some will argue that the classic format shouldn't be altered, otherwise a horse winning the Triple Crown will have a cheapened victory. But don't we already cheapen the feat by reducing the strength of the field in the second leg of the challenge? Another idea is to change the bonus structure. Right now VISA offers a $5-million bonus for a Triple Crown winner. In the past there was also a bonus for the top score put in by a horse during the three races. This should be re-instated (with or without the adjusted rest between the first two races), with say a $1-million or $2-million bonus paid to the horse with the best overall result in the Triple Crown races. A simple system such as points awarded for first, second and third place finishes would suffice. It would certainly motivate the connections to run legitimate contenders in all three races.

What about the race? I think we're going to see a two horse showdown between Funny Cide and Peace Rules. Because of all the unfortunate controversy plaguing Santos this week, and our annual desire to see the dream of the Triple Crown winner advance to the final race, we'll go with Funny Cide, but there is little to pick between the two. Peace Rules survived being part of a sharp pace in the Derby, which bodes well for his chance to come back and win here. Others with a chance are Ten Cents A Shine, Cherokees Boy, Kissin Saint and Scrimshaw. Of those I'm leaning to Ten Cents A Shine, who has two good works after an improvement running ten wide in the Derby, and Cherokees Boy, with our third highest ratings. However, it is Scrimshaw that qualifies under our QC (Qualified Contenders) criteria.

Spud Says: Funny Cide, Peace Rules, Ten Cents A Shine, Cherokees Boy

The QCs: Funny Cide, Peace Rules, Scrimshaw, Cherokees Boy

 

Race 12: M & 3/16.....PREAKNESS ... Purse $1,000,000

Quick Picks:

Funny Cide

Cherokee's Boy

Peace Rules

Pace:

Funny Cide

Peace Rules

Cherokee's Boy

Class:

Funny Cide

Peace Rules

Cherokee's Boy

Power Play:

Funny Cide

Cherokee's Boy

Peace Rules

Long Shot:

Ten Cents A Shine

CONSENSUS

Funny Cide(12)

Peace Rules(6)

Cherokee's Boy(6)

Scrimshaw(1)

Name

RTG

P#

ML

DLR

TF

AER

B2

LR

EP

LP

FTS

Rank

Funny Cide

+++

9

7/5

14

19

100

102

98

102

100

102

23521

Peace Rules

+++

7

8/5

14

16

76

104

97

103

98

102

15251

Cherokee's Boy

++

2

15-1

28

13

20

101

104

100

100

101

41623

Scrimshaw

+

1

5-1

14

19

29

102

91

103

98

101

29253

Kissin Saint

 

4

20-1

35

5

17

99

95

96

103

99

57915

Foufa's Warrior

+-

3

20-1

15

12

18

99

98

103

96

99

53275

New York Hero

++-

8

20-1

14

19

34

99

97

106

92

98

55197

Senor Swinger

++-

1A

5-1

15

18

18

98

100

98

100

98

82927

Midway Road

+-

6

20-1

23

15

8

94

88

100

94

94

99699

Ten Cents a Shine

+-

5

15-1

14

19

6

95

93

100

95

94

98689